Wednesday 10 February 2021

The global market for risk capital

Interest in the global risk capital markets remains, as indirectly indicated by the fall of the US currency, which has historically acted as a protective tool. US indices are at historical highs, the Chinese market has updated 5-year tops.




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Interest in the global risk capital markets remains, as indirectly indicated by the fall of the US currency, which has historically acted as a protective tool. US indices are at historical highs, the Chinese market has updated 5-year tops. Nevertheless, the growth rate of the leading indicators of the stock market and commodity assets is slowing down, reflecting local overheating.

The Russian stock market, not having managed to really close the gap on the rise of global markets, is falling ahead of the curve. As a matter of fact, the domestic indices have poorly worked out the last wave of growth of global risky assets. The geopolitical discount persists.

In the meantime, the broad-based offensive of stock bears is being held back by progress in agreeing on the US fiscal package; the recovery of consumer and manufacturing activity against the background of the success of the international vaccination program. It seems that most of the positive is already in the current asset price.

Oil prices are running above $61 per barrel of Brent. There are no fundamental factors for the fall. Moreover, the expectations of the development of the trend for the disposal of reserves of raw materials in the United States were met. However, technical overbought signals an increase in the probability of a limited correction in oil futures.

Asian markets


Markets in the Asia-Pacific region are showing some disunity. And the Chinese stock index soared above 5-year highs.

Chinese platforms implemented technical signals at the end of last week. Holding the trend line signaled us about the probability of an early update of the annual peaks. Today, the Shanghai Composite stock index (3,640 p.) exceeded the highs from the beginning of 2016.

The released statistics on inflation in China did not have a negative impact on the sentiment of stock market participants. The consumer price index is below zero, reflecting the full satisfaction of domestic demand due to the record recovery of industrial strength in the country. As Western economies open up and demand in China's foreign markets intensifies, the inflation curve will rise.


The Russian stock market, not having managed to really close the gap on the rise of global markets, is falling ahead of the curve. As a matter of fact, the domestic indices have poorly worked out the last wave of growth of global risky assets. The geopolitical discount persists.

In the meantime, the broad-based offensive of stock bears is being held back by progress in agreeing on the US fiscal package; the recovery of consumer and manufacturing activity against the background of the success of the international vaccination program. It seems that most of the positive is already in the current asset price.

Oil prices are running above $61 per barrel of Brent. There are no fundamental factors for the fall. Moreover, the expectations of the development of the trend for the disposal of reserves of raw materials in the United States were met. However, technical overbought signals an increase in the probability of a limited correction in oil futures.

Asian markets


Markets in the Asia-Pacific region are showing some disunity. And the Chinese stock index soared above 5-year highs.

Chinese platforms implemented technical signals at the end of last week. Holding the trend line signaled us about the probability of an early update of the annual peaks. Today, the Shanghai Composite stock index (3,640 p.) exceeded the highs from the beginning of 2016.

The released statistics on inflation in China did not have a negative impact on the sentiment of stock market participants. The consumer price index is below zero, reflecting the full satisfaction of domestic demand due to the record recovery of industrial strength in the country. As Western economies open up and demand in China's foreign markets intensifies, the inflation curve will rise.


South Korea's Kospi (+0.5%) remains undecided. For the further growth of the country's stock market, weighty arguments are required. First, the stock benchmark has performed the best in the world over the past year, doubling since March. Thus, the technical component of overbought is still on the side of the players on the downside.

Secondly, the fundamentals of the labor market leave much to be desired: the unemployment rate rose to 5.4% — the worst result since 1999. The advance issued to the stock market should be worked out in the real sector of the economy.

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