The global market for risk capital

Interest in the global risk capital markets remains, as indirectly indicated by the fall of the US currency, which has historically acted as a protective tool. US indices are at historical highs, the Chinese market has updated 5-year tops.




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Interest in the global risk capital markets remains, as indirectly indicated by the fall of the US currency, which has historically acted as a protective tool. US indices are at historical highs, the Chinese market has updated 5-year tops. Nevertheless, the growth rate of the leading indicators of the stock market and commodity assets is slowing down, reflecting local overheating.

The Russian stock market, not having managed to really close the gap on the rise of global markets, is falling ahead of the curve. As a matter of fact, the domestic indices have poorly worked out the last wave of growth of global risky assets. The geopolitical discount persists.

In the meantime, the broad-based offensive of stock bears is being held back by progress in agreeing on the US fiscal package; the recovery of consumer and manufacturing activity against the background of the success of the international vaccination program. It seems that most of the positive is already in the current asset price.

Oil prices are running above $61 per barrel of Brent. There are no fundamental factors for the fall. Moreover, the expectations of the development of the trend for the disposal of reserves of raw materials in the United States were met. However, technical overbought signals an increase in the probability of a limited correction in oil futures.

Asian markets

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region are showing some disunity. And the Chinese stock index soared above 5-year highs.

Chinese platforms implemented technical signals at the end of last week. Holding the trend line signaled us about the probability of an early update of the annual peaks. Today, the Shanghai Composite stock index (3,640 p.) exceeded the highs from the beginning of 2016.

The released statistics on inflation in China did not have a negative impact on the sentiment of stock market participants. The consumer price index is below zero, reflecting the full satisfaction of domestic demand due to the record recovery of industrial strength in the country. As Western economies open up and demand in China's foreign markets intensifies, the inflation curve will rise.


The Russian stock market, not having managed to really close the gap on the rise of global markets, is falling ahead of the curve. As a matter of fact, the domestic indices have poorly worked out the last wave of growth of global risky assets. The geopolitical discount persists.

In the meantime, the broad-based offensive of stock bears is being held back by progress in agreeing on the US fiscal package; the recovery of consumer and manufacturing activity against the background of the success of the international vaccination program. It seems that most of the positive is already in the current asset price.

Oil prices are running above $61 per barrel of Brent. There are no fundamental factors for the fall. Moreover, the expectations of the development of the trend for the disposal of reserves of raw materials in the United States were met. However, technical overbought signals an increase in the probability of a limited correction in oil futures.

Asian markets

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region are showing some disunity. And the Chinese stock index soared above 5-year highs.

Chinese platforms implemented technical signals at the end of last week. Holding the trend line signaled us about the probability of an early update of the annual peaks. Today, the Shanghai Composite stock index (3,640 p.) exceeded the highs from the beginning of 2016.

The released statistics on inflation in China did not have a negative impact on the sentiment of stock market participants. The consumer price index is below zero, reflecting the full satisfaction of domestic demand due to the record recovery of industrial strength in the country. As Western economies open up and demand in China's foreign markets intensifies, the inflation curve will rise.


South Korea's Kospi (+0.5%) remains undecided. For the further growth of the country's stock market, weighty arguments are required. First, the stock benchmark has performed the best in the world over the past year, doubling since March. Thus, the technical component of overbought is still on the side of the players on the downside.

Secondly, the fundamentals of the labor market leave much to be desired: the unemployment rate rose to 5.4% — the worst result since 1999. The advance issued to the stock market should be worked out in the real sector of the economy.

Stock indicators

Stock indicators continue to show an increased amplitude of fluctuations. Estimates regarding the volatility of global markets for February are confirmed. Frequent mood changes characterize the presence of uncertainty against the background of local exhaustion of positive emotions and the absence of obvious negative drivers. However, for the Russian market, the dominant factor of exchange rate formation in the coming days is again geopolitics.



The US market is once again approaching historical highs, and the VIX volatility index, after an impressive 60% increase at the end of January, yesterday collapsed into the area of historical averages. The devaluation trend of the US dollar is weakening, reflecting the lack of progress in the US fiscal program.Financial topics are very relevant and at the peak of the rise.You can work and get additional revenue by mastering a few simple steps.For more information, you can also contact the broker deltamarket forex, which has proven itself with good reviews.

Oil has updated its annual highs, approaching the technical gap of mid-February 2020. The medium-term rebound, as expected, turns into a long-term upward movement (more than a year). Support for commodity contracts was provided by the trend towards the utilization of US energy reserves.

Asian markets

The indices of the Asia-Pacific region are characterized by inertia. And the Chinese economy is cooling down.

Chinese platforms do not show increased activity of participants in the exchange process. The Shanghai Composite stock index is trading in the neutral zone. Investors assess the emerging trend of slowing down the growth rate of macro indicators.

Yesterday, the manufacturing PMI, and today the services PMI, reflected the natural fading of the growth momentum after the full recovery of the Chinese economy from the failure reviews of the beginning of 2020. The index of purchasing managers ' sentiment in the services sector fell to 52p in January from 56.3 p, but is still above the 50p threshold separating stagnation from the expansion of the country's manufacturing forces.

Japan's Nikkei is feeling more confident, adding almost a percentage. However, we view the ongoing technical overbought of the stock market as a signal for a future correction.

On the Japanese macro front, the trends are similar to both Chinese and Australian ones — the pace of business recovery is fading amid the exhaustion of the low base effect. However, if the PMI in China is above 50 p., then the Japanese indices will only have to get out of the recession: the PMI for January is 46.1 p.

American sites

The rebound in early February continues. For 2 sessions, the market managed to neutralize almost all the losses of the last weeks of January. On the eve of the leading benchmarks added 1.5%, and today futures for the broad market S&P 500 index added another 0.4%, breaking the mark of 3830 points.

Thus, the players on the rise did not even notice the obstacles at the level of 3800 p., coming very close to the historical peaks. The S&P 500 is less than 1% off its peak. The large-scale buyout of the US market is supporting stock bulls around the world.

In February, there was a sharp change in sentiment in the risk capital markets. The VIX volatility index, which reflects the mood of stock market investors for the next month, is accelerating: if last week there was an unprecedented daily jump in the "fear index" by more than 60%, then by Tuesday's close, the VIX returned to the historical average. It seems that this calmness is imaginary.

The US currency continues to strengthen, and the global devaluation trend is slowing down. The US dollar index (DXY: 91 p.) may also move to 92 p . , putting pressure on the currencies of developing countries.

Interestingly, the protective function of the dollar has now faded into the background. Investors are playing the card of higher corporate profitability, as well as the factor of the delay by state legislators in the adoption of the state support package. The fiscal package fork ($1.9–0.6 trillion) is too broad to assess the impact of state aid on the country's macroeconomic performance. It is worth waiting for the consensus of the authorities.

Raw materials

Oil prices are in the region of annual highs. The day before, futures updated the levels of 11 months ago. The April contract rose above $ 58 for Brent. The benchmarks of the ascending rate have been reached.

Wednesday's trading is without a significant deviation at $57.7. More and more signals are coming about the impending shortage of raw materials, the peak of the gap falls at the end of spring against the backdrop of a recovery in demand and limited supply of resources from the members of the OPEC + alliance.

An additional driver is the emerging trend of utilization of energy reserves in the United States. Thus, according to the API, crude oil reserves decreased by 4.3 million barrels, with a consensus of a slight increase in the indicator. It is also worth waiting for the official data of the Ministry of Energy.